SINO-INDIA RELATIONS

Recent years have witnessed a steady growth of economic ties between India and Japan, with the latter emerging as the third largest contributor to Foreign Direct Investment in India. Chinese diplomats don’t seem too happy about this newfound affinity, causing nervous flutters in Beijing. Recent statements by IAF Chief P.V Naik on the proposed upgradation of airfields in the North-East and eventual posting of a whole squadron in that region have the Chinese frowning even more gravely.
The annual growth of international trade between the two Asian neighbours, India and China, is around 15 %; it has increased by 50 % in the last five years. Bilateral trade ties have grown exponentially since 2005 as agreed by both Prime Ministers, with annual trade expected to reach $60 billion by 2010. It is projected that by 2050, India and China will be the two leading economies in the world, which further reiterates the need for strong bilateral trade ties and better economic co-operation.

The economies of both countries are bound to be, crippled in the event of a protracted war. Is it worth risking such a development through mutual provocation? The past has been witness to a fair share of provocative actions by either side. Prime Minister Nehru’s “Forward” policy of building outposts in gross violation of the internationally accepted McMahon Line was perceived as a threat to China. In 1959, when Prime Minister Nehru welcomed the fleeing Dalai Lama to India, Mao Zedong, the Chairman of the People’s Republic of China, was infuriated, prompting d him to make this statement: “Be sharp, don't fear to irritate him [Nehru], don't fear to cause him trouble. Nehru miscalculated the situation believing that China could not suppress the rebellion in Tibet and would have to beg India's help.”

The year 1962 saw the Chinese waging war on India, which led to the latter, hopelessly unprepared, being defeated. The outcome of the Sino-India border conflict in 1962 prompted British journalist Neville Maxwell to write that "the hopelessly ill-prepared Indian Army that provoked China on orders emanating from Delhi, paid the price for its misadventure in men, money and national humiliation".
The late 80’s saw China’s irresponsible action of arming Pakistan with nuclear weapons capability as they had cheekily empowered the otherwise weak Pakistani defence which led to panic in camp India. One is reminded of former Secretary of State of the United States Henry Kissinger’s famous words, “India lives in a tough neighbourhood”.

Today, the still unresolved Tibet issue seems to stick out like a sore thumb in Sino-India relations. Recently the Dalai Lama wanted to visit Tawang in Arunachal Pradesh, which is not legally recognised as Indian Territory by the Chinese. Experts say it is a dead issue that is causing more harm than good for India .The Indian government took a firm stand, saying that the Dalai Lama was free to exercise his sovereign right of travelling to any part of India. Minister for Foreign Affairs S.M Krishna declared that the Dalai Lama need not hesitate in travelling to anywhere he chose to.

The Chinese are reportedly building a dam over the Brahmaputra at its source in Tibet which is a deep cause of concern for India. The Brahmaputra is considered the lifeline of the Assam Valley and tampering with its flow could have drastic effects. Many organizations have voiced their dissent as this could lead to severe flooding and also dry up the river during winters.Dr Mohan Malik, a Sinologist with a PhD in International Relations from the Australian National Uinversity, believes that China is trying extremely hard to overpower India’s growth since the former’s monopoly over the South Asian corridor seems to be under threat. Its relentless efforts towards killing India’s civilian nuclear deal with the United States and its exercise of veto rights against India’s entry into the UN Security Council have not endeared China to those in New Delhi.

Dr Malik believes that if India has to emerge as a global player, then it had better sort out the issues it faces in its own backyard before things spiral out of control. The Dalai Lama and the Tibet issue are to be handled by India maintaining the same firm stance that it always has been over the last few decades. Proposals for swapping territories on the northern border are not a solution to the long-standing conflict between the two countries.

In military terms, India is no pushover . Unlike the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), which last fought a war in 1979, the Indian Army has been constantly engaged in real war and has an experienced military outfit. India is not willing to face a repeat of the 1962 war where a large territory was ceded to the enemy, Beijing will have to battle it out to stake its claim for Arunachal Pradesh.
China and India have an important role to play in building a post-American world order. They hold enormous stakes in the maintenance of peace and responsibility, writes Dr Mohan Malik. For now, bilateral talks seem to be the most feasible means of pursuing this goal. War is the last option, a choice best ignored.